23 April
2009
Global Retrenchment - Retreat, Not Surrender
...retaining the ability to respond to reversal of fortune
Everyone knows good times don't last forever. Or do they?
In many economic downturns in America's history, the hubris of imaginary/undeserved perpetual prosperity has been present.
Why, even in California, we had a tax revolt launched over "that obscene surplus" - a "rainy day fund". California's had some incredible "rainy days" since. So not only is it fashionable to not plan for a downturn, it can be considered practically criminal in certain political lights.
But what's worse is America destroying its resilience ahead of time ... and being proud of it. Read more ...
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22 February
2009
Bringing America back from the abyss ...
Dealing with denial
America isn't America anymore. In the past decade, we've lost too much of what defines America as America - and that isn't just bad for America - this crisis envelopes the entire world.
Lacking discipline, clarity, respect for reasoned discourse, fair dealing, intellectual honesty, able execution, and a passion for excellence - these all defined the American experience, the Yankee "can do" spark that electrified the world. It has all become a bunch of empty slogans, bankrupt by a pirate culture that claimed all of the above ... until it suited them to betray those aspects selectively. Paraphrasing Khrushchev, we have sold the rope to hang ourselves - made in China, on sale at WalMart, and soon to be discounted.
You'd think that anything this bad a threat to our world (let alone our nation!) we'd turn on in a moment and tear out its guts. Nope - sorry, we're only beginning to notice its existence, and have only been buying temporary relief for a few trillion dollars.
What's worse, the denial/delusion we've been in that got us into this position is quite alive, vibrant, and ready finish the job of our demise on a going forth basis. It's about as dire as it can get - can America even desire to wake up and claw its way back?. Read more.
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20 January
2009
It's time for America to export ... but what?
How to bring the American economy back
Everybody has an idea to stimulate the US - but none of these deal with the fundamental problem - for a massive economy increase, you need massive product exports.
All the rest is window dressing. You won't get back any ROI at all on most of what's been touted, be it in finance, education, auto, retraining, etc. Forbes has half a good idea with small business stimulus - but it doesn't guarantee any reasonable ROI.
So let's be hard assed businessmen, leave the Ponzi/con schemes aside, and only consider what will/has before grown back the economy, namely large scale product exports, reversing the service industry direction of the past 30 years.
But globalization has meant that manufacturing has been best done outside of the US, and we've neglected/sold off/destroyed equipment/plants/people/skills/relationships since, so we have little capability to do, let alone compete.
But that can be compensated with the tremendous resources of the US, and a heritage of American mastery of production still retains the basics - it can be brought back. The more difficult part is the policy of what products to make.
You can't compete with China/India/Korea/Malaysia/Russia on cost/volume/brand - that's gone. No way to fill the shelves of Walmart ever. And it is more likely that imports will take more than 91% of domestic auto sales in short order. So what do you produce? Read more...
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10 September
2008
Valuing New Ideas with an Open Mind
C.H. Townes on "game changing" events
Nobel laureate C.H. Townes prizes retaining an open mind.
With it, he claims, America got to the moon on time and budget. Without it, he intimates, General Motors eminence went from American greatness to American cluelessness.
Believe him - he brought you the laser, modern fiber communications, an understanding of the cosmos, and countless other "game changing" events.
Because they are "game changers" - listen and you could win, don't listen and you will lose.
And what you didn't know - he took on Vannevar Bush, an early opponent of the Apollo program, where in his losing we all won. Read more...
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